What Is The Most Impressive MTV Challenge Championship According To The Numbers?

Hey everyone, last year, I decided to do an article where I put a “value” on every Challenge win. It was a mix of lazy math and subjectivity applied by some idiot who views their self as a Challenge expert (me). Looking back, there was some good applied simple mathematics mixed with expert knowledge of the season, except, it also included inherent biases and a lack of exact statistics holding it back. Thus, I chose to spend time going through all the actual math to figure out what are the chances of someone winning a Challenge season is, and what their chance of making the final of that season as well.

For example, the Duel 1 had 10 males competing, with 2 spots available in the final, and 1 winner crowned in the end. That means they have a 20% shot of making the final, and a 10% of winning. Not all seasons are that simple because you have to account for how many finalists there will be, mercenary/final twists, etc. Nonetheless, I break them all down for you in order from the least impressive wins to the most impressive.

Also, if you want to know which players have the most impressive career win-rates compared to the difficulty of the seasons they played in, I went in detail in video format on 18 of the greatest players in Challenge history (9 men and 9 women). If you don’t want to watch the whole video, know that if you skip around, it goes from the lowest win ratios of Challenge legends, all the way up to the best at the end. The #1 overall male and female may take you aback, especially the male once you see their stats.

What you will see in this article is that most of the modern seasons of the Challenge are exponentially harder than the early-day and even middle-generation seasons. There are some outliers from back in the day that will impress you. However, for old school fans, you might get disappointed to see one of your favorite seasons be ranked as a low-value win. I’m not trying to diminish players from that era; if anything I just want fans to understand that in this modern era, it’s fucking hard to win.

Note: when evaluating the math, we have to operate based on the expected format playout, and not necessarily what actually played out. For example, Beth quit the Inferno, and her decision meant only 5 women could make the Inferno final, versus 6. When evaluating, we have to assume that people aren’t quitting or getting hurt because those are externalities that you cannot account for when projecting.

LOWEST TIER

THE COIN FLIP SEASONS — Road Rules All Stars (S1), Real World vs Road Rules Challenge (S2), Challenge 2000 (S3), Extreme Challenge (S4)

I refer to these original four seasons as the Coin Flip seasons because all players entering the game had a 50% shot of winning guaranteed. There were no eliminations on these seasons, and Seasons 2–4 were two team games where one would get crowned a winner in the end. It’s a finals appearance for all players regardless. Season 1 only had one team, and the final was a Pass/Fail challenge.

LOW TIER WINS

The Infernos — Inferno 1 (S8), Inferno 2 (S10), Inferno 3 (S14)

All three infernos had twenty people on the cast with eight eliminations before the final, meaning there would be 12 guaranteed final spots, giving players a 60% shot at the final. Since it’s a two-team final, you cut that 60 in half, and each player’s chance of winning is 30%. Apologies to Inferno fans because these are the easiest wins besides those original four seasons.

The Gauntlets — Gauntlet 1 (S7), Gauntlet 2 (S11), Gauntlet (S15)

The Gauntlets had 32 players and 16 eliminations before the final, meaning 16 out of 32 would make the final in theory, giving everyone a 50% shot to make the final. Since they are two-team finals, you cut that 50 in half, and each player’s shot of winning a Gauntlet is 25%.

Low Middle Tier Wins

The Island (S16)

The Island had 20 cast members and 8 keys to the final. Theoretically, a player could have owned more than one key, but for this, we are going to assume that all keys needed to get distributed. 8 out of 20 finals spot means they had a 40% shot at making the final, and then it becomes a two-team final, so you split that 40 in half, and your shot of winning the Island is 20%.

OG Battle of the Seasons (S5)

A much different format. They got separated into two teams: RW vs. RR, except there were 8 coed pairs within each team, and then 5 vote-offs per team before the final. That meant for each pair, they had a 3 in 8 shot to make the final, 37.5% chance. You then cut the 37.5 in half for it being a two-team final, and your chance of winning is 18.75%! If you are a Coral Stan, know that her one win isn’t close to the bottom!

The Ruins (S18)

The Ruins had two teams with 7 player per gender on each. There were 9 eliminations per gender with one team against the other. In theory, one team could win the first 7 male or female eliminations and completely wipe out the gender division of one team before the final, and means as many as 7 men could make the final. The Challenger team quite literally ran the final without any males.

However, we will assume the eliminations are random in terms of the winner and expect that 5 out of 14 players per gender make the final, meaning a 35.71% chance of making the final. Then you cut it in half as a two-team final to make it a 17.85% shot of winning the Ruins.

Middle Tier Wins

Rivals 1 (S21)

Rivals 1 had 7 same-sex pairs competing in their gender divisions. With 4 eliminations per gender, that meant there were 3 spots in the final, giving each pair a 42.85% chance of making the final, which is relatively high for its era. You take 42.85 and divide it by 3 because that’s how many pairs run the final, and the chance of winning is only 14.28% for Rivals 1.

Cutthroat (S20)

Cutthroat had 15 player per gender split up across three teams where each team would have 5 men and 5 women. The team that won the daily challenge earned immunity, where the losing teams would then put a male and a female into elimination against one another. Similar to the Ruins, in theory, a team could lose the first five daily challenges, lose all their men or women or both, and then theoretically 10 players per gender could make the final. However, we are going to assume that it’s a random distribution, that all 9 eliminations are played, and that there are 6 final spots per gender. In the actual Cutthroat, Chet’s medical meant there would be only 5 male spots.

Thus, 6 out of 15 is a 40% chance to make the final, and since it’s a three-team final, you take the 40 and divide it by 3 to get a 13.33% shot of winning Cutthroat.

Rivals 2 (S24) and War of the Worlds 2 (S34)

Rivals 2 had the same format as Rivals 1, except for one extra team and elimination. 3 out of 8 is a 37.5% chance to make the final, and divide it by three for a 12.5% shot to win.

War of the Worlds 2 is difficult to deduce for finals percentage/chance. There were 16 players per gender, with 8 men and 8 women on each team. Accounting for the quits/DQs, I assume there were supposed to be 7 final spots per gender after the purges/eliminations. 7 out of 16 gives all players a 43.33% shot to make the final. Except the final for this season is idiotic, where there is a purge that brings the total amount of players down to eight. Meaning, making it to Final Part Two is a 25% chance of happening, then cut it in half as it is still a two team final, giving each player 12.5 shot of winning WOTW 2.

Top Tier Wins

Battle of the Seasons 2012 (S23)

Battle of the Seasons had 32 players, 16 per gender, with eight teams consisting of four players, two men, and two women. There were 11 eliminations this season, consisting of two teams supplying a coed pair for the elimination. While there are 8 teams, we have to treat this format as having 16 pairs and 11 eliminations, which means there are 5 final spots available to those pairs. In theory, as many as five teams could have made the final (5 teams of 2), and the minimum is three teams in the final (2 teams of 4, and 1 team of 2). On the actual Battle of the Seasons, had Derek and Jonna won the final elimination, then there would have been four teams in the final.

All players have a 5 out of 16 shot of making the final, a 31.25% chance. The winning odds depend on how many teams run the final. If three teams run the final, their shot of winning is 10.41% as you divide the 31.25 by 3. For a four-team final, it is 7.8125%, and a five-team final is a 6.25% shot of winning. The 3–4% difference is massive, even if it seems small.

Duel 1 (S13)

The Duel was simple, 10 players per gender competing in their own division, 8 eliminations per gender, 2 final spots available, meaning a 20% shot to make a final. With a two contender final, you split the 20 in half, and everyone’s chance of winning is 10%. Even though it’s not a top-five win, it is the 3rd hardest final to get into.

Battle of the Sexes 1 (S6) and 2 (S9) and Fresh Meat 1 (S12)

The original Battle of the Sexes had two teams with 18 players on each side (all one gender). With 15 vote offs per gender, there are 3 finals spots per gender, giving each player a 16.66% chance to make the final. Even though the Battle of the Sexes are two of the earliest seasons, they are statistically the most challenging finals to make. For reference, Shane Landrum finished 5th place among males on Sexes 1. Finishing top 5 in his gender division was a 27.7% chance, literally less of a chance to finish top five on Sexes 1 than winning an Inferno.

With this being a two-team final, you cut the 16.66 in half and your shot of
winning 8.33%.

Fresh Meat 1 had 12 pairs and eight eliminations for four final spots. The actual FM1 final had three final spots, but production changed it after the Coral/Evan medical DQ. Initially, it was a 4 out of 12 shot to make the final, a 33.3% chance. Then it became 3 teams, which I’m not sure if it makes for 3/11 or 3/12, either 27.5% or 25%. Regardless of it’s a four or three-team final, the math still equates to a 1 in 12 shot winning, 8.33%.

Invasion of the Champions

The Underdogs and Champs played different games as they did not face each other in eliminations. The Underdogs had 9 players per gender, 6 eliminations per gender, and 1 purge as well, leaving 2 final spots for the Underdogs per gender. 2 out of 9 means there’s a 22.2% chance to make the final for Underdogs. There were four players per gender and three eliminations on the Champs side, giving them only 1 final spot per gender. 1 out of 4 means a 25% chance to make the final. From a strictly math basis, the Underdogs had a more challenging route.

You then divide each by three for the amount of players running the final, and the Champs have an 8.33% shot of winning, while the Underdogs have a 7.41% shot. If you’re an Ashley fan, you can use this math in arguments to say her win was more impressive than CT’s.

5 Way Tie: Duel 2 (S17), Fresh Meat 2 (S19, Exes 1 (S22) and 2 (S26), Rivals 3 (S28)

Rivals 3 and both Exes seasons had 13 coed pairs to start with and 3 total final spots in the end. 3 out 13 means players had a 23.07% chance to make the final, then divide that 23.07 by 3 to get a 7.69% shot of winning.

Duel 2 has the same math, except as it’s run as 13 individuals versus pairs. Duel 1 is a harder final to make; Duel 2 is a statistically harder win.

Fresh Meat also has 13 coed pairs, except the difference is it allows four teams into the final. 4 out of 13 means they had a 30.7% chance to make the final, and then divide by 4 for a 7.69% shot of winning.

Free Agents (S25), Bloodlines (S27), Total Madness (S35)

Free Agents was an individual game with 14 players in each gender division with 11 eliminations and three final spots per gender. 3 out of 14 gives all players a 21.42% chance to make the final, then divide by, and the shot of winning Free Agents is 7.14%.

Bloodlines math was tough to figure out, as they had separate male-female eliminations days. The coed pairs have the most demanding route as they are eligible for every elimination. With 3 final spots for 14 teams, the coed pairs math is the same as Free Agents. The same-sex pair math highly varies on what teams get eliminated. If the coed teams keep getting eliminated, then MTV would have had to change the format.

Total Madness operates similar to the rest, as it is 1/14 odds of winning, meaning a 7.14% shot. The final chances are different because they allow 5 players per gender into the final, a 35.71% chance. Only 4 women competed in the Total Madness final due to the Big T medical DQ.

ELITE TIER WINS

Dirty 30 (S30)

There were 15 players per gender, each playing in their gender divisions. Despite all the purges, redemptions, DQs, etc., all you need to know is three people make the final per gender, which means a 3 of 15 chance to make the final, 20%. Dirty 30 is tied with Duel 1 for one of the hardest finals to make, behind the Battle of the Sexes 1 and 2. You take 20%, divide it by 3, and the shot of winning is 6.66%.

Final Reckoning (S32)

The math of Final Reckoning varies due to the mercenaries. Teams that entered the game on day one had 4 finals spots for 17 pairs, meaning a 23.52% chance to make the final. When Ashley/Hunter enter the game, there are 14 total pairs for the rest of the game, meaning 4 finals spots for 14 pairs, and a 28.57% chance of making it there. For Cory/Devin, it was 4 finals spots for 11 pairs, and a 36.36% chance to make the final. You divide these by four, and the OG pairs had a 5.88% shot of winning, the first set of mercenaries at 7.14% shot, and the second set a 9.09% shot.

It upsets me that Final Reckoning ranks so highly because from a competitive standpoint, it’s a non-sensical season with far too many twists that make the game completely unbalanced and often rewards certain players for failing.

Vendettas (S31)

Similar math to other seasons. Four final spots gender for fourteen players per gender, giving each player a 28.57% chance to make the final. While the chance of making the final is higher than a lot of other top seasons, this final differs. There is a second portion of the final where only two men and two women are allowed, so you have to cut the 28.57 in half, and you get 14.28%.
Final part two only awards one genderless win, and thus you take that 14.28% and divide it by the 4 players remaining, and the shot of winning Vendettas is 3.57%.

If you love Cara Maria, you can shout from the rooftop about your favorite player having the second most impressive statistical win ever. This is where stats don’t always tell the whole picture, though, because Cara’s performance throughout the season was pretty lackluster until the final, yet, she had to survive, and the math says this win ranks almost at the top. Another thing to note is Zach’s second-place finish is statistically on par with winning Free Agents, Total Madness, or Bloodlines.

THE BEST WIN

War of the Worlds 1 (S33)

The math for this game has one little variance. Rookies competed in a game with 34 total players (17 men and women), where the 18 rookies had to compete in an initial purge that took out one female and one male. Since the veterans do not compete in this, their game is only a composite of 32 players. The game initially starts as coed pairs, then becomes individuals, and in the end, there are four finals spots per gender. It’s 4 out of 17 for the rookies, and for the vets, a 4 out of 16 chance to make the final, a 23.5%, and a 25% shot to make the final. The entire final is genderless, meaning you divide the 23.5 and 25 by 8, meaning the winning shot for a rookie is 2.941% and 3.125% for a vet.

To put this in perspective, Wes finishing top 3 on WOTW 1 had a 9.375% shot of happening. That means from a stat point of view, Wes’s 3rd place finish on WOTW is more difficult than his Duel 1 win. Theo had a 5.88% shot of finishing top 2 on WOTW 1, and you compare to that Infernos, and winning two Infernos had a probability of 9%. I’m not saying someone like Abram, who won two Infernos is less impressive than Theo because Prime Abram didn’t compete on WOTW 1, so we don’t know how he would rank on that season. However, we should champion these high-level performances that reflect the fact that winning in the show’s modern era is fucking tough.

Full Summary: