What are the odds your favorite wins the Dirty 30?
If you are not aware of how betting odds work in the “100” system, I will give you the simple system. Being +100, means that if you put down 100 dollars, you make 100 dollars back, 200 total.
+150 = $150 dollar payout with $100 dollar investment, totaling $250
-125= $100 dollar payout with $125 dollar investment, totaling $225
Thus, when someone is an odds on favorite, they get a negative total. For examples, Bananas & Sarah probably would have been -500 favorites to win the Rivals 3 final. Meaning they would need to put down 500 dollars in order to win 100 dollars. Their win was totally expected.
While Ashley on Invasion last year would have been something like +1500 to win the season. Putting a 100 dollar investment in order to profit 1500 dollars. Ashley winning was super unexpected, especially against a champ and person like Nicole who is much better shape.
Derrick K +750
Derrick H +3000
I’m giving Jordan the best odds. Out of all the male champions, he is currently in his physical and athletic prime. Having already won and been to two finals, he is someone who can either dominate or play the game regularly. Great at daily missions, good elimination record (4–1), and mostly strong in everything.
Darrell and Bananas are always favorites to win whatever season they are on with their track record. CT still has the dad bod and has to play a more political game this season. Derrick K is a beast, but it has been a while since we have seen him compete. LeRoy is below Hunter/Nelson, because if he was going to win a Challenge it would have happened on Exes 2. It feels as if his window might be closed unless we get a team Challenge.
Cara Maria and Camila have so much experience over the other female contenders. Kailah and Tori can beat them in theory. Together they only have two daily Challenges under their belts. An essentially rookie win will be tough; it could happen against Camila, not sure about Cara. Fun fact: Camila was the only female champion on Bloodlines, Free Agents, and Battle of the Seasons, and she never made it to the halfway point on any of them, then lost a final to a person who never ran a final before.
Jenna is better than Amanda objectively and is highly likely to make it farther than Amanda, winning a final is where it becomes tough to imagine. She cannot eat and cannot do puzzles. Likewise, Aneesa has 11 seasons done already, and one of the most embarrassing final performances ever. She is not winning.
Making the Final Odds
Derrick K +250
Derrick H +2500
Cory and Tony are people who I do not believe can win a final. Making the final is a different story. Cory has made 2/3 finals so there’s precedent, while Tony plays with the veterans. LeRoy due to friendships and the fact he makes it to the end of the game usually is a reason he is more likely to make the final than winning it.
Cara Maria -300
Jemmye and Veronica are social players who make it to the end through alliances and being lay-ups for the final. Jenna has made the final 3/4 seasons that she has been on, and the only time she was eliminated, it was during the Underdog Bloodbath.
It will be a fun season. Who would you put your money on?