What are the odds your favorite wins the Dirty 30?

Allan Aguirre
4 min readJul 14, 2017


If you are not aware of how betting odds work in the “100” system, I will give you the simple system. Being +100, means that if you put down 100 dollars, you make 100 dollars back, 200 total.

More examples:
+150 = $150 dollar payout with $100 dollar investment, totaling $250
-125= $100 dollar payout with $125 dollar investment, totaling $225

Thus, when someone is an odds on favorite, they get a negative total. For examples, Bananas & Sarah probably would have been -500 favorites to win the Rivals 3 final. Meaning they would need to put down 500 dollars in order to win 100 dollars. Their win was totally expected.

While Ashley on Invasion last year would have been something like +1500 to win the season. Putting a 100 dollar investment in order to profit 1500 dollars. Ashley winning was super unexpected, especially against a champ and person like Nicole who is much better shape.

Winning Odds


Jordan +350
Bananas +400
Darrell +400
CT +500
Derrick K +750
Nelson +1000
Hunter +1200
LeRoy +1250
Dario +1500
Cory +1700
Devin +1700
Tony +1900
Derrick H +3000
Shane +5000
Ammo +10000

I’m giving Jordan the best odds. Out of all the male champions, he is currently in his physical and athletic prime. Having already won and been to two finals, he is someone who can either dominate or play the game regularly. Great at daily missions, good elimination record (4–1), and mostly strong in everything.

Darrell and Bananas are always favorites to win whatever season they are on with their track record. CT still has the dad bod and has to play a more political game this season. Derrick K is a beast, but it has been a while since we have seen him compete. LeRoy is below Hunter/Nelson, because if he was going to win a Challenge it would have happened on Exes 2. It feels as if his window might be closed unless we get a team Challenge.


Cara Maria+150
Camila +350
Ashley +750
Tori +800
Kailah +800
Amanda +1000
Jenna +2000
Veronica +2050
Britni +2250
Marie +2500
Aneesa +3300
Nicole +5000
Jemmye +6250
LaToya +8850
Simone +20000

Cara Maria and Camila have so much experience over the other female contenders. Kailah and Tori can beat them in theory. Together they only have two daily Challenges under their belts. An essentially rookie win will be tough; it could happen against Camila, not sure about Cara. Fun fact: Camila was the only female champion on Bloodlines, Free Agents, and Battle of the Seasons, and she never made it to the halfway point on any of them, then lost a final to a person who never ran a final before.

Jenna is better than Amanda objectively and is highly likely to make it farther than Amanda, winning a final is where it becomes tough to imagine. She cannot eat and cannot do puzzles. Likewise, Aneesa has 11 seasons done already, and one of the most embarrassing final performances ever. She is not winning.

Making the Final Odds


CT -150
Jordan +100
Bananas +150
Darrell +200
Derrick K +250
LeRoy +500
Nelson +850
Hunter +900
Cory +1000
Tony +1150
Dario +1500
Devin +1600
Derrick H +2500
Shane +3000
Ammo +5000

Cory and Tony are people who I do not believe can win a final. Making the final is a different story. Cory has made 2/3 finals so there’s precedent, while Tony plays with the veterans. LeRoy due to friendships and the fact he makes it to the end of the game usually is a reason he is more likely to make the final than winning it.


Cara Maria -300
Camila -110
Jenna +100
Tori +350
Ashley +400
Kailah +700
Amanda +850
Veronica +900
Jemmye +1450
Marie +1700
Aneesa +1900
Britni +2000
Nicole +2300
LaToya +3500
Simone +7500

Jemmye and Veronica are social players who make it to the end through alliances and being lay-ups for the final. Jenna has made the final 3/4 seasons that she has been on, and the only time she was eliminated, it was during the Underdog Bloodbath.

It will be a fun season. Who would you put your money on?



Allan Aguirre

27 years old. I blog about MTV's the Challenge and will dabble into other subjects occasionally. Follow me on Twitter for the occasional bad joke.


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