Predicting the Next Big Brother Winner By Age and Name

I really love dumb statistics that end up being decent predictors. In Big Brother US history, there have been 18 winners, 12 men, and 6 women. I’ve decided to track the winners by average age and name length in order to find those who fill the “stereotype” of a Big Brother champion, and the ones who do not.

I am choosing their age based on the day they won the season, so if they started the season at 25, and ended it at 26, they will count as 26. For name purposes, I will be putting what they were listed at for the show, or what’s on wikipedia. Will Kirby is Will, not Willian, Dan Gheesling will be Dan instead of Daniel, etc.

The oldest man to ever win Big Brother, and oldest person ever to win, is Evel Dick. Dick was 44 when he won, and is the oldest by a margin of 8 years, as Boogie was 36 when he won All Stars. Besides them, Derrick (30), from BB16, is the only other person who has won Big Brother in their thirties. In his cast reveal photo, Kevin Schlehuber (55) dressed spiffy and looks great for his age. Him winning would be major history and is unlikely. The average age of a Big Brother winner is 27. The average male winner is 27, with average female winner being 25.

The average total name length is 10.7 letters, so those who currently have 10 or 11 letters are: Elena Davies (26), Mark Janson (26), Megan Lowder (28), Cody Nickson (32), Ramses Soto (21), and Raven Walton (23).

Derrick Levasseur has the longest name in Big Brother history to have won, with 16 letters in his name. After him, the longest is Nicole Franzel with 13 letters and Maggie Ausburn, also 13. Luckily, nobody in the cast has a full name that goes longer than 15 letters. Bad thing for female, Alex Ow (28), is that the shortest name to have ever won Big Brother is 7 letters (Jun Song).

The average first name length of winners is 4.66 letters. Those with 4 or 5 letters: Elena, Jason, Mark, Megan, Josh, Cody, Alex, Kevin, and Raven. Longest first name to win is Derrick at 7 letters, which is bad news for: Christmas and Dominique.

Average last name length is 6.05 letters, those with 6 letters in their last name are: Christmas Abbott, Matthew Clines, Elena Davies, Mark Janson, Megan Lowder, Jillian Parker, and Raven Watson. Derrick and Dan Gheesling have the longest last name to ever win with 9 letters. Another knock on Kevin Schlehuber.

Now based on these dumb stats, let’s predict the winner and rank from least to most likely:

16 Kevin Schlehuber (55 year old stay at home dad) — Kevin seems like a sweet guy. One that would feed you ice cream. He would have the longest last name of a winner ever, second longest name ever of a winner, and be the oldest winner by 11 years.

15 Christmas Abbott (33 year old fitness superstar) — Has a name that makes you want to crack out some Egg Nog. She would be the oldest female to ever win by a margin of 5 years, and would have the longest first name to have ever won Big Brother.

14 Domique Cooper (30 year old engineer) — Would be the fourth person to win BB in their thirties, oldest woman to have ever won by 2 years, and has the longest first name. Difference between her and Christmas is that she’s younger.

13 Jason Dent (37 year old Rodeo clown) — Seems like a perfectly nice guy. Fits most parameters of “yes” a person his age has won, with his name length, etc. He’d be the second oldest winner ever.

12 Matthew Clines (33 year old renovation consultant) — Tied for the longest first name of a winner, would be tied for the second longest name of a winner ever. Good looking person. Same reasoning as Jason, except he’s younger.

11 Alex Ow (28 year old marketing rep) — Would be tied with Jun Song for the oldest female winner. Jun Song won 14 seasons ago, all girls since have been under 28, and she would have the shortest name to ever win and shortest last name.

10 Ramses Soto (21 year old Cosplay artist) — Don’t let the glasses and youth trick you into assuming he’ll win. While we have had young winner, he’s 6 years off the average male winner age. The average male winner also has a first name length of 4.4, think about it: Mike, Dan, Dick, Andy, Adam, Drew, Will, Ian. 6 letters could end his game.

9 Cody Nickson (32 year old sales rep) — He is good looking. His first name is 4 letters, just below the average, his total name length is the average 11 letters. He’d be the 3rd oldest winner in show history.

8 Josh Martinez (23 year old haircare salesman) — Josh reminds me of a bigger A-Rod. Four years younger than the average age of a male winner. An 8 letter last name too.

7 Jillian Parker (24 year old Timeshare sales rep) — A little below the perfect age for a winner. Her first name is 7 letters, the longest first name of a female winner ever is 6.

6 Megan Lowder (28 year old dog walker) — fits the amount of letters perfect for first, last, and total name. As mentioned before, a 28+ year old woman has not won in a while.

5 Raven Watson (23 year old dance teacher) — the perfect last name, first name, and total name numbering. A bit younger than the average. Hope she doesn’t win, she listed her favorite player in BB history as Frankie Grande.

4 Cameron Heard (24 year old microbiologist) — his first name is 7 letters, tied for the longest of a past male winner. Last name is fine. 12 letters a little higher than average, and a few years younger than the average male winner.

3 Jessica Graf (26 year old VIP concierge) — perfect amount of letters in her name for the average overall winner, perfect age. A bit of the averages of female winners. Would have the longest name of a female winner ever, and would also tied Jun Song for the shortest last name.

2 Elena Davies (26 year old radio personality) — just like Jessica, except her name fits the perfect amount of letters for first name, last name, total letters, total average age, and only 1 year off that of the average female winner.

1 Mark Janson (26 year old personal trainer) — ten letters, four letter male first name, 6 letter last name, and he’s male so he get’s the 2/3rd odds bump. Mark is the guy you put your money on. Or not, this was dumb, but I hope you had fun.



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Allan Aguirre

Allan Aguirre


26 years old. I blog about MTV's the Challenge and will dabble into other subjects occasionally. Follow me on Twitter for the occasional bad joke.