NBA Eastern Conference Over/Unders: Who to bet on? Who to stay away from?

As I have gotten older, my passion for sports has increased with the added element of gambling. It’s like a life test of whether I’m smart enough to risk my pocket change and paycheck on the possibility of more money.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook recently released their win over/unders for the 2017–2018 NBA season. Let’s go through each team and choose whether to go over or under.

Boston Celtics 56.5

Take: Under

The Celtics won 53 games last season. Now they have added two all stars to their team: Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. Some of their younger guys got a year older, they added Aron Baynes, Marcus Morris, and Guerschon Yabusele. However, they’ve also made a few major subtractions from the team that won them 53 games. Thomas, Bradley, and Crowder were three of their top four players, and while each of them had their own shortcomings, they were the heart of the team that made three straight playoff appearances. With only four returning players, it’s hard to expect the Celtics firing on all cylinders to start the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers 53.5

Take: Over*

A lot depends on whether Isaiah Thomas is “healthy”. The addition of Thomas actually makes the Cavs an improved regular-season team. Offensively, he’s used to carrying a lion’s share when Lebron rests. Crowder allows them to play flexible small ball line-ups, and we may get to see a more empowered Kevin Love. If you’re choosing four of five teams to bet on, stay away from the Cavs, it’s a bit too close to call right now. I currently have them pegged at 55 wins in the bad East.

Toronto Raptors 48.5

Take: Over

Each year when over/unders come out, Raptors fans are often disappointed by the their expected win total. I don’t blame them, this year they’re expected to win 48.5 wins after getting 50+ wins two years in a row. DeMar DeRozan had an incredible 2017 season, and is working on improving his 3pt shot. They added CJ Miles, had a training camp with Ibaka, and their youngsters have gotten a year older (Nogueira, Poeltl, Powell, and Wright).

Milwaukee Bucks 47.5

Take: Under*

This is going to be a squeaker. They only won 42 games last season, however, their second best player (Khris Middleton) has returned and is fully healthy. He came back early last season and did great in the playoffs at the end of the season. The combo of Giannis/Middleton is one of the most exciting pairs in the East, their pure athleticism and size is what make the Bucks scary. Their ability to intercept passes, block shots, and be able to switch positions 1–4 defensively is perfect for modern NBA.

However, good regular season teams require potent offense. Their defense looks great, but

they will be grinding wins. I have them pegged at 47 wins this season. Just under.

Washington Wizards 47.5

Take: Over

After a slow start last season, the Wizards were on track to a 54-win season, totaling 49 at the end of the day. With Wall, Beal, Porter, Morris, and Oubre all getting a year older, one might expect this team to be favorite to make the ECF. The center position is the biggest question mark for the team. Marcin Gortat is going to turn 34 this season and has a ton of minutes on him, especially considering he used to play in the uptempo Nash offenses of the past. Ian Mahinmi has been non-existent, and Otto Porter finished the season a bit weak compared to his hot start. Their bench has improved in that Tim Frazier is a far superior backup point guard to Trey Burke.

Miami Heat 43.5

Take: Over

For the second half of last season, the Heat were on a 60-win track. It doesn’t negate the fact that they were on 20-win track during the first half of the season. It will be exciting to see how the team does with Justise Winslow integrating back into the line-up. They attempted to make him a point forward, and only began to succeed once Waiters and Johnson took over that role. Olynyk was a questionable signing, though he is bound to be much better than Luke Babbitt.

Charlotte Hornets 42.5

Take: Over

Last season, the Hornets had the second worst record in NBA history regarding a positive score differential. Does this mean they were really a 42-win team and not a 36-win team? No, it probably means that they were a 39-win team with some bad luck. The ability to win close games is underrated in the NBA. The 2016 Jazz were a playoff team on paper, but could not close out, keeping them out of playoffs. The addition of Dwight Howard is huge. Clifford has always established strong defenses during his tenure in Charlotte without a true rim protector — he has that now. Malik Monk gives them shooting and spacing, and maybe MCW could learn to be a great defender under Clifford.

Philadelphia 76ers 42.5

Take: Under

I fully trust the process. The starting line-up of Embiid-Simmons-Covington-Redick-Fultz is terrifying in theory. Additionally, they have Richaun Holmes, Dario Saric, Timothe Luwawu, TJ Mcconnell, and Justin Anderson off the bench, this Philly team is loaded with talent. The issue is these players have so little game experience on their hands. Expecting them to come together and win 38 games after being so bad the previous few seasons is tough, 43 wins is unimaginable. In all honesty, they could make a massive jump next year, rather than this season.

Detroit Pistons 38.5

Take: Over*

It’s hard to gauge where this Pistons are. They regressed a ton after 2016. The Pistons are a team that believed in paying a high price for role players and rewarding their own players financially. In some ways, it’s worked: Reggie Jackson (2016), Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes (2016), etc. and in other ways, it came back to bite them: Reggie Jackson (2017), Boban Marjanovic, and Jodie Meeks.

The reason I see them beating the over is due to how bad the East has become. Avery Bradley becomes their best player. He is what the Pistons fans have wanted from KCP. Currently have the Pistons pegged for 40 wins.

Orlando Magic 33.5

Take: Over*

Frank Vogel is a good coach who often gets the best out of his players. The acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo handcuffed Vogel to play Aaron Gordon as a small forward. Hennigan is now out of the front office, as well as Ibaka as the team’s power forward. The Magic team has been competitive the past couple of seasons, let’s see if they can finally close out some games.Their biggest weakness still remains who are they going to play. I felt bad for Vogel when they put this roster together, it’s incredibly random and marginalizes everyone on the team with its redundancy.

Indiana Pacers 31.5

Take: Under

I would pick the over if Nate McMillan was not the Pacers coach. They have a scrappy identity and a potential all star in Myles Turner. This is the perfect Doug Collins team. They’re filled with a ton of players who are general net positives and can fill roles: Cory Joseph, Victor Oladipo, Thad Young, Lance Stephenson, Darren Collison, and Bojan Bogdanovic. It’s an interesting group of players who have all contributed on some of the highest levels. Except McMillan is coaching this squad. McMillan is a solid in game coach, not a great training or pregame plans. For him to save his job, he needs to push them.

New York Knicks 30.5

Take: Under

If Melo leaves, the Knicks will be in the mid-20’s. If he stays they will be in the mid-30’s, partially because they would be losing their best player, but really due to Lance Thomas or whoever backs him up not being on his level at all. Their guard problems have become suspect. Derrick Rose was not good, but playing a rookie point guard, drafted to play the triangle, isn’t going to win you games this year. It’s hard to imagine Joakim Noah coming back as a legitimate contributor, and they’ll have to rely on Tim Hardaway making a big step as a player.

Brooklyn Nets 28.5

Take: Under

Last season, the Nets made a late push to get to 20 wins. Many see them as being able to make the jump due to the additions of D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, and DeMarre Caroll. People are also banking on Jeremy Lin coming back, and the improvement of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LaVert, and Isaiah Whitehead. They have no incentive to tank.

At the end of the day, their main issue is talent. Can this young team piece together 29 wins when not having a level big man at the 4 or 5 on the roster> Or guards who don’t have a ton of experience starting and winning games either.

Atlanta Hawks 25.5

Take: Under*

I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have a soft spot for the ATL. This team has the second longest active playoff streak with 10 seasons in a row in the postseason. Their main issue is that Dennis Schroeder is easily their best player. After him, their talent is sketch. Ersan Ilyasova and Kent Bazemore are battling to be the second best players on their roster. I like Taurean Prince, John Collins, and DeAndre Bembry, it’s just hard to expect them all to be worth more than four wins combined this season. Mike Muscala has needed a few more minutes, but now he’s being thrust into the starting role where he’s probably one of the worst starting fives in the league. Take the under on Atlanta, and pick Schroeder for your fantasy team. He could possibly put up 24–5 considering the lack of talent on this roster.

Bulls 21.5

Take: Under

Fred Hoidberg’s job has always been on shaky ground. Now that Rose, Noah, Gasol, Butler, and Gibson are out, this is his team. The issue with that is their best player is post ACL Zach LaVine. On the Timberwolves we saw that LaVine is an exciting player, yet it hasn’t converted to wins. They have made trades and moves to add point guards: Kris Dunn and Cameron Payne. No proof that either is going to be awesome, all the while LaVine will want the lion share of possessions. There are constant reports that they will be buying out Wade. This team has no direction currently, which is the worst type of tanking.

Three Best Bets:

Philadelphia 76ers Under 42.5 wins

Toronto Raptors Over 48.5 wins

Washington Wizards Over 47.5 wins

Three Teams to stay away from:

Detroit Pistons 38.5 wins

New York Knicks 30.5 wins

Milwaukee Bucks 47.5 wins