Challenge Dirty 30: What are the chances Cory and Briana win their eliminations this week?

Allan Aguirre
5 min readAug 1, 2017


People are upset that we did not get an elimination last week to end the episode. Then again, if they had not shown the Shane & Simone drama, there might have been some backlash and outrage against it. We will always get the elimination, but a serious moment like what happened last week was something we needed to be informed of. Now we can move forward and focus on the elimination.

The Challenge gets to hype the first elimination and introduce the new system of eliminations. There will be a kill card similar to Free Agents, except this time the person who pulls the kill card gains power and can throw a fellow loser into elimination.

Why does this matter?

It adds another element to the game of social politics, sabotaging, and supports being bad as much as it does being good. Winning is the only way you can be safe, and losing helps the weaker players.

Who benefits the most from this?

On the girls side, Jemmye and Veronica are two females who are currently not as fit as the other two females loses, and are more around for the social game, i.e. having a good time. Jemmye so far has finished last place in two challenges in a row. There is no reason for when you pull the “Double Cross” that you should throw in Jemmye, keeping her in the game is better for you in the long-run. At the same time, you should throw in Camila, Cara Maria, Kailah, and Tori every chance that you get.

Who’s going in?

It depends on who pulls the double cross.

Girl Possibilities

If Jenna pulls the double cross, she will throw in Britni as the other girls are not major threats against her.

If Jemmye pulls the double cross, she will throw in Britni, though she probably wants to throw in Jenna as the bigger threat.

If Veronica pulls the double cross, she will throw in Britni as a rookie.

If Britni pulls the double cross, she will throw in Jenna as the biggest threat.

75% chance of Britni going in, 25% chance of Jenna going in. Veronica and Jemmye are safe.

Guy Possibilities

If LeRoy pulls the double cross, he will throw in Derrick as he is close Dario.

If Dario pulls the double cross, he will throw in Derrick as he views LeRoy as his best friend in the house.

If Derrick pulls the double cross, he will throw in LeRoy as he is the bigger threat.

66.6% chance of Derrick going, 33.3% chance of LeRoy going in. Dario is safe.

Briana versus Jenna or Britni

Jenna holds a career record of 5 wins and 0 losses in eliminations. She’s only had to face weak competition which she has proven to be better than, maybe Briana becomes casualty number #6. If Briana can pull off the win, it would be a major upset that would put her on the map as a competitor.

Britni sizes up well with Briana, it seems like an even match-up on paper. They both around the same height and weight. Britni is a lot more scrappy and ready to fight than Briana. Briana seems to be smarter, though Britni is the bigger physical threat.

Cory versus Derrick H or LeRoy

As Derrick H would call this: a battle of the chocolate. Cory has a career 2–1 record in eliminations, though one of the wins came when Theo quit. If he faces Derrick H, I give the edge to Cory. In the promos the elimination looks wonky, and when shit gets weird, you have to give the edge to the veteran.

LeRoy is one of the greatest elimination competitors in the history of the Challenge, if Cory has to square up against LeRoy, he should be terrified. If Cory can beat LeRoy, he would rocket up levels of validation, as LeRoy usually does not lose to chumps. His elimination losses have come against Emily Schromm, Jordan, and CT.

Who goes home and who stays will add to the drama. Considering how stacked the male side is, watching a Cory, LeRoy, or Dario early in the game is low-key huge. It will be great to get an elimination and a daily challenge next week, even if not in the natural order we are accustomed to.

Shameless Plug

I recently got a podcasting mic and plan on transitioning into doing some podcasting in addition to the blogging. I’ve been reading through Reddit Podcasting the last two weeks on how to kind of do stuff, though I still struggle figuring out how to do stuff like this. I do plan on adding a co-host, this was basically an 8 minute babbling preview of this week’s elimination. Just wanted to try this all out, and see how it goes. It will not be as awkward once I have a co-host and have guests that I can interact with, I love conversation, but hate talking with myself, which is basically what this is. So here you go:

I tried to embed the link in the sentence above, put it here, and put the downloadable under it. I’m not the most tech savvy.

P.S. if you read my content and were ever interested in talking Challenge on it, I’ll definitely welcome it.



Allan Aguirre

26 years old. I blog about MTV's the Challenge and will dabble into other subjects occasionally. Follow me on Twitter for the occasional bad joke.

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